Today through Wednesday...Gusty winds have
finally calmed down early this morning, however
this respite will give way to a quick-moving
upper-level wave embedded within a amplified
flow pattern aloft. This wave will bring a
chance of showers to most of the forecast area,
as well as a slight chance of isolated
thunderstorms across the eastern mountains of
Oregon. Another round of breezy winds will also
accompany this wave. A more benign zonal flow
pattern then settles in through the midweek,
however light persistent PoPs will prevail over
the high mountains as this pattern favors at
least a low-end chance for orographic showers to
develop over the Cascade crests and eastern
mountains.  Overnight satellite imagery shows
mostly clear skies early this morning, however
that will give way to the aforementioned upper-
level wave, seen on satellite as a shield of
mid-level clouds. The velocity of this system
suggests relatively low QPF for at least the
lowlands, but given how this wave is accompanied
by amplified NW flow aloft, orographic
enhancement could bring QPF amounts higher over
the mountains with a few tenths of an inch
possible (NBM probabilistic suggests a 50-60%
for at least a quarter of an inch of liquid
precip). Winds will generally gust in the 20-25
mph range for most of the Basin and central
Oregon, with gusts closer to 30 mph for the
Cascade Gaps and east slopes of the Cascades,
including the Simcoe Highlands. Thunder chances
for the eastern mountains are low- end (15-25%),
but models do pick up on some low-end CAPE in
the 200- 400 J/kg range, so did leave some
mention of isolated storms for the area. 
Tuesday and Wednesday will be quieter as
temperatures warm slightly under zonal flow.
Such a pattern will induce at least slight
chance PoPs for the high mountains, but should
note that models are trending towards making
this pattern a bit more amplified than what was
previously expected. More specifically, the
deterministic GFS and ECMWF now hint at a
shortwave potentially moving in late Wednesday
into Thursday, which could provide for another
quick- hitting shower and thunderstorm day,
along with breezy winds, much like we`re
expecting today. Evans/74  .LONG TERM...Thursday
through Monday...Ensembles have a fair handle on
the synoptic pattern through next weekend,
however the progressive nature of the pattern
makes it more difficult to key in on specific
features. Both the deterministic GFS and ECMWF
suggest a series of waves on Thursday and
Friday, with a stronger trough on Friday, before
high pressure builds in over the weekend. As
mentioned in the short term discussion, impacts
with Thursday`s system are expected to be minor,
as the shortwave looks to be weak and fast,
however the trough on Friday does exhibit a bit
more of a negative tilt, which would provide for
a higher confidence in storm chances, especially
over the eastern mountains. That being said,
moisture doesn`t look to impressive this far
out, so PoPs are low at this time (20-40%), but
that could increase once CAMs are able to get a
handle on how this system evolves.  Temperatures
warm over the weekend with ridging over the
PacNW, with highs expected to climb back into
the 80s across the lowlands. Confidence is shaky
for Monday, however guidance does appear to lean
toward another trough moving in, inducing SW
flow and thus yet another chance for showers and
mountain thunderstorms. Can only speak with low
to moderate confidence, however (30-40%), as
some ensemble members keep ridging in place,
suggesting that warm and dry conditions may
persist beyond next weekend. Evans/74 

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion