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The Dalles, OR

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IMMEDIATE FORECAST
Today

Today: Light Snow
Light Snow
Hi 24 °F
Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24. East wind 8 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tonight

Tonight: Light Snow Likely
Light Snow Likely
Lo 19 °F
Snow likely. Cloudy. Low around 19, with temperatures rising to around 21 overnight. East wind 1 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible.

THREE-DAY OUTLOOK
Friday

Friday: Chance Light Snow
Chance Light Snow
Hi 39 °F
Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
Lo 22 °F
Saturday

Saturday: Chance Rain And Snow
Chance Rain And Snow
Hi 38 °F
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: Rain And Snow
Rain And Snow
Lo 30 °F
Sunday

Sunday: Rain And Snow
Rain And Snow
Hi 37 °F
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Light Rain
Light Rain
Lo 34 °F

FORECAST DISCUSSION
Today through Saturday...  Bottom Line Up Front 
1) Winter Weather Advisories Thursday-Friday
across all areas in    Oregon  2) High Wind
Warnings in foothills and Southern Grand Ronde
Valley    Thursday may cause visibility issues  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY FOR... The East Slopes of the
Oregon Cascades, Central Oregon, John Day Basin,
Ochoco-John Day Highlands, North Central Oregon,
Eastern Columbia River Gorge of Oregon-Eastern
Columbia River Gorge of Washington, Lower
Columbia Basin of Oregon-Foothills of the
Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon, Grande Ronde
Valley, Northern Blue Mountains of
Oregon-Southern Blue Mountains of
Oregon-Northwest Blue Mountains, and the
Foothills of the Northern Blue Mountains of
Oregon-Foothills of the Blue Mountains of
Washington.  CAMs HI-RES short term models are
in firm agreement with the occluded front
lifting into the region and lingering through
Friday. Southwest flow aloft is bringing in
ample moisture across the region beginning in
central OR and moving across the region to the
north east. Timing of the system is a bit
difficult to pin down, but many of the models
show the onset of the snow to begin between 4 AM
in central OR before steadily moving north east.
Forty-eight hour snow totals across the region
begin with over 80% of the raw ensembles show
central OR will receive 2-4 inches, north
central will see between 3-5 inches, east slopes
between 5-8 inches, John_day Basin 1- 3 inches,
Ochoco-John Day Highlands 3-7 inches, eastern
Columbia River Gorge of WA & OR 1-3 inches,
lower Columbia Basin and foothills of the
southern Blues will see 2-4 inches, Grand Ronde
Valley 1-3 inches, Northern Blue Mountains of
Oregon: Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon:
Northwest Blue Mountains will all see 5-10
inches and lastly, Foothills of the Northern
Blue Mountains of OR & WA will se 3-5 inches. 
Not only will the occluded front bring about
decent precipitation chances, the front will
also bring with it southeast flow along the
eastern portion of the CWA. Primarily this will
lead to very windy situations through the Grande
Ronde Valley and along the foothills of the
Blues due to downsloping affects. A high wind
warning is out for the aforementioned areas due
to this and it began at 10 PM and will remain in
effect through 10 PM Thursday. Over 80% of the
HREF raw ensembles are in agreement that
sustained winds between 25 to 40 mph with gusts
of 50 to 60 mph will occur. As for the foothills
of the BLues, 60-80% of the HREF raw ensembles
show sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts
of 50 to 60 mph as well, especially through the
I-84 corridor. The winds coupled with the
snowfall will cause visibility issues and will
be monitored constantly during the event in case
of white out conditions. Please drive extremely
careful and always check Tripcheck.com before
taking to the roads. Bennese/90  .LONG
TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models are in
fair agreement with the synoptic pattern through
Tuesday, but differences begin to emerge on
Wednesday, especially with the deterministic
runs.  The run-to-run continuity has been good
for Sunday, as models show a moist westerly flow
aloft early in the day followed by a shortwave
trough during the afternoon and evening.  PoPs
are around 60-100% across the board with the
lowest PoPs across the Columbia Basin down to
Central Oregon. Snow levels around 1500 feet are
forecast for south central and southeast
Washington sloping upwards to 4500 feet in
central Oregon. Confidence is high that the
Cascades, Blue Mtns, and Wallowas will observe
4-8" of new snow and confidence is moderate of
8-12". The pattern is not favorable for snow
accumulations in the lowlands, although a few
locations will have a chance for 0.5-1.0" of
snow.  PoPs remain high over the mountains on
Monday, and the northern Blue Mtns have a good
chance (50%) of observing 3-6" of additional
snow. There are no organized fronts advertised
by the models, although the forecast area will
be under a northwest flow aloft ahead of a
developing offshore ridge, and there are weak
impulses embedded in the flow. PoPs in the
lowland areas will generally range from 20- 40%.
 Models agree that the offshore ridge will move
inland on Tuesday, but the ridge will be
relatively flat.  This will allow showers to
develop along the Cascades and the eastern
mountains with light amounts of snow. There are
some model differences on the amplitude of the
ridge, and the chance of precipitation may be
reduced on Tuesday if models agree more on a
higher amplitude ridge.  For the most part, the
ensembles agree that the ridge will flatten and
allow a shortwave trough to bring additional
showers to the forecast area on Wednesday. The
deterministic ECMWF maintains a more amplified
ridge. Due to the model differences, there is
some uncertainty on whether the mountains will
have another round of moderate to heavy snow. 
The differences are even more pronounced on
Thursday, and the deterministic runs appear out
of alignment. Looking at the overall mean of the
ensembles, Thursday will be met with a flat
ridge and 30-50% chance of mountain snow
showers. Wister/85  

NWS PDT Office Area Forecast Discussion