IMMEDIATE FORECAST | |
Today![]() Light Snow Hi 24 °F |
Snow. Cloudy, with a high near 24. East wind 8 to 12 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. |
Tonight![]() Light Snow Likely Lo 19 °F |
Snow likely. Cloudy. Low around 19, with temperatures rising to around 21 overnight. East wind 1 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around one inch possible. |
THREE-DAY OUTLOOK | |
Friday Chance Light Snow Hi 39 °F |
Friday Night ![]() Partly Cloudy Lo 22 °F |
Saturday Chance Rain And Snow Hi 38 °F |
Saturday Night Rain And Snow Lo 30 °F |
Sunday![]() Rain And Snow Hi 37 °F |
Sunday Night Light Rain Lo 34 °F |
FORECAST DISCUSSION |
Today through Saturday... Bottom Line Up Front 1) Winter Weather Advisories Thursday-Friday across all areas in Oregon 2) High Wind Warnings in foothills and Southern Grand Ronde Valley Thursday may cause visibility issues ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY TO FRIDAY FOR... The East Slopes of the Oregon Cascades, Central Oregon, John Day Basin, Ochoco-John Day Highlands, North Central Oregon, Eastern Columbia River Gorge of Oregon-Eastern Columbia River Gorge of Washington, Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon-Foothills of the Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon, Grande Ronde Valley, Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon-Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon-Northwest Blue Mountains, and the Foothills of the Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon-Foothills of the Blue Mountains of Washington. CAMs HI-RES short term models are in firm agreement with the occluded front lifting into the region and lingering through Friday. Southwest flow aloft is bringing in ample moisture across the region beginning in central OR and moving across the region to the north east. Timing of the system is a bit difficult to pin down, but many of the models show the onset of the snow to begin between 4 AM in central OR before steadily moving north east. Forty-eight hour snow totals across the region begin with over 80% of the raw ensembles show central OR will receive 2-4 inches, north central will see between 3-5 inches, east slopes between 5-8 inches, John_day Basin 1- 3 inches, Ochoco-John Day Highlands 3-7 inches, eastern Columbia River Gorge of WA & OR 1-3 inches, lower Columbia Basin and foothills of the southern Blues will see 2-4 inches, Grand Ronde Valley 1-3 inches, Northern Blue Mountains of Oregon: Southern Blue Mountains of Oregon: Northwest Blue Mountains will all see 5-10 inches and lastly, Foothills of the Northern Blue Mountains of OR & WA will se 3-5 inches. Not only will the occluded front bring about decent precipitation chances, the front will also bring with it southeast flow along the eastern portion of the CWA. Primarily this will lead to very windy situations through the Grande Ronde Valley and along the foothills of the Blues due to downsloping affects. A high wind warning is out for the aforementioned areas due to this and it began at 10 PM and will remain in effect through 10 PM Thursday. Over 80% of the HREF raw ensembles are in agreement that sustained winds between 25 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph will occur. As for the foothills of the BLues, 60-80% of the HREF raw ensembles show sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 60 mph as well, especially through the I-84 corridor. The winds coupled with the snowfall will cause visibility issues and will be monitored constantly during the event in case of white out conditions. Please drive extremely careful and always check Tripcheck.com before taking to the roads. Bennese/90 .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Models are in fair agreement with the synoptic pattern through Tuesday, but differences begin to emerge on Wednesday, especially with the deterministic runs. The run-to-run continuity has been good for Sunday, as models show a moist westerly flow aloft early in the day followed by a shortwave trough during the afternoon and evening. PoPs are around 60-100% across the board with the lowest PoPs across the Columbia Basin down to Central Oregon. Snow levels around 1500 feet are forecast for south central and southeast Washington sloping upwards to 4500 feet in central Oregon. Confidence is high that the Cascades, Blue Mtns, and Wallowas will observe 4-8" of new snow and confidence is moderate of 8-12". The pattern is not favorable for snow accumulations in the lowlands, although a few locations will have a chance for 0.5-1.0" of snow. PoPs remain high over the mountains on Monday, and the northern Blue Mtns have a good chance (50%) of observing 3-6" of additional snow. There are no organized fronts advertised by the models, although the forecast area will be under a northwest flow aloft ahead of a developing offshore ridge, and there are weak impulses embedded in the flow. PoPs in the lowland areas will generally range from 20- 40%. Models agree that the offshore ridge will move inland on Tuesday, but the ridge will be relatively flat. This will allow showers to develop along the Cascades and the eastern mountains with light amounts of snow. There are some model differences on the amplitude of the ridge, and the chance of precipitation may be reduced on Tuesday if models agree more on a higher amplitude ridge. For the most part, the ensembles agree that the ridge will flatten and allow a shortwave trough to bring additional showers to the forecast area on Wednesday. The deterministic ECMWF maintains a more amplified ridge. Due to the model differences, there is some uncertainty on whether the mountains will have another round of moderate to heavy snow. The differences are even more pronounced on Thursday, and the deterministic runs appear out of alignment. Looking at the overall mean of the ensembles, Thursday will be met with a flat ridge and 30-50% chance of mountain snow showers. Wister/85 |